Opinion: Does The BJP Need Congress's Help In Delhi?

The Battle of Delhi is intensifying, with Rahul Gandhi joining the election campaign. The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has received approval from the Home Ministry to prosecute Arvind Kejriwal in the alleged liquor scam. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has released its second list of candidates, and as the deadline for nominations approaches, candidates from all parties are filing their papers.

For the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), it's a fight for survival; for the BJP, it's about prestige, and for the Congress, it's about relevance. Will the AAP score a hat trick, or will a rejuvenated Congress spoil its chances? Can the BJP make a comeback after a gap of almost 27 years?

The AAP and the Congress have been engaged in a war of words in Delhi since contesting as allies in the June 2024 Lok Sabha polls. While Ajay Maken called Kejriwal “anti-national”, Sandeep Dikshit has been fielded against the former chief minister from the New Delhi seat. Dikshit has ramped up his attacks on the AAP in a bid to recover lost ground. In response, the AAP has called for the Congress's removal from the INDIA bloc.

'Jugalbandi' 

On Monday, Rahul Gandhi attacked Arvind Kejriwal, claiming that Kejriwal's campaigning style mirrored that of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He accused the AAP of making false promises and blamed it for rising pollution and inflation. Kejriwal quickly responded, accusing Gandhi of abusing him. He claimed that both the BJP and the Congress were working in tandem and that the elections would expose their “jugalbandi" (duet).

The AAP has grown at the expense of Congress and other parties, particularly among Purvanchalis, the poor and lower socio-economic classes, minorities, and Dalits. Therefore, any gain for the Congress in the vote share is likely to come at the AAP's expense. In the 2008 assembly elections, the Congress recorded a 40% vote share, with the BJP, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Others getting 36%,14%, and 10% votes, respectively. In the next state elections in 2015, the AAP secured 54% votes and the BJP got 32%, while the Congress and Others got 10% and 4% votes, respectively. In 2020, the Congress's vote share further declined to 4%. Almost the entire vote chunk of the Congress and Others has been absorbed by AAP in assembly elections.

Overlapping Vote Bases

Meanwhile, whenever the Congress has improved its vote share in local body or general elections, it has been at the expense of the AAP. For example, in the 2017 MCD elections, the AAP couldn't win as the Congress recorded a 21% vote share—an 11 percentage point (pp) gain compared to the 2015 assembly polls. Similarly, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the AAP lost 36% of its vote share as the Congress saw a 13 pp gain and the BJP 25 pp, compared to the 2015 assembly elections. These AAP voters who shifted to the BJP may have been motivated by a preference for Arvind Kejriwal in the assembly and Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha. Similarly, the AAP voters who shifted to the Congress may have been anti-BJP voters, backing Kejriwal in the assembly and Rahul Gandhi in the Lok Sabha, as both were seen as better positioned to defeat the BJP in their respective elections.

In the 2020 Delhi assembly elections, the AAP secured 54% of the vote share, the BJP got 39%, the Congress 4%, and Others 3%. Both the Congress and the BJP lost around 18% of their votes compared to the 2019 general elections.

In the 2022 MCD elections, the AAP lost 12% of its vote share as the Congress gained 8%, compared to the 2020 assembly elections. The AAP won the close contest with 134 out of 250 seats, just eight more than the simple majority of 126. This was an election the AAP was expected to win comfortably as the BJP was battling a 15-year anti-incumbency.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP bagged 54% votes, the AAP 24%, the Congress 18%, and Others 4%, with the AAP and the Congress contesting as allies. According to trends from the past two election cycles (2014-15 and 2019-20), a section of voters swing between AAP-BJP and AAP-Congress from one election to the next.

Will Swing Voters Swing Again?

The AAP holds a 15% lead over the BJP in assembly elections, a significant margin that is difficult to overcome. Meanwhile, the Congress has 10 to 15% of AAP's swing voters, who Kejriwal hopes will shift back to the AAP in the 2025 state elections. In the 2024 general election, the Congress secured 20% of Dalit and 34% of Muslim support, according to CSDS post-poll data, translating to an 8% vote share from these two communities. The BJP needs the Congress to retain some of these votes.

The AAP's 15% lead in 2020 can be broken down as follows: 3% votes from Hindus, 2% from Sikhs, and 10% from Muslims. The BJP led among upper castes and upper OBCs by 10%, while the AAP led among Dalits by 30%, Sikhs by 40%, and Muslims by 80%. The AAP's significant lead among Dalits and minorities gives it a real advantage over the BJP. In 2020, Congress received 13% of the Muslim vote and 4% of the Sikh vote, according to CSDS post-poll data.

A Sticky Situation For Congress

The BJP hopes the Congress can regain some of its appeal among minority voters, who may feel uneasy with the AAP's soft Hindutva approach. If the Congress were to gain 15% more support from Muslims, Dalits, and Sikhs compared to 2020, it could reduce the AAP's vote share by around 5%, given that these communities make up 35% of the population.

If the BJP also manages to capture 5% of AAP's vote share due to anti-incumbency and middle-class disillusionment with the AAP—partly due to corruption allegations against Kejriwal and his top ministers—then the AAP could lose as much as 10% of its vote share. In the event of this 10% swing, the BJP could win 39 seats, while the AAP could secure 31 seats, based on the 2020 performance.

This election is unique in that the BJP is hoping for the Congress to perform well. The better the Congress does, the worse the AAP will fare in terms of vote share, given the complementary nature of their voter bases. This creates a dilemma for the Congress: campaigning aggressively would harm AAP and help the BJP.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author